Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
360 Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (4 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 30.0%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+19.2 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 47.5%
Vs median VC book
+2.7 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 63.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.8 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 80.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+1.0 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 65.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iminentiminent.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Smartdatesmartdate.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Qapaqapa.fr | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| Musementmusement.com | 2013 | Yes | 46 | — |
| CharityStarscharitystars.com | 2013 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Monte Cristomontecristogames.com | 2008 | No | 12 | — |