Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
.406 Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 85.7% (6 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.7%–97.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+39.2 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 46.5%
Vs median VC book
+23.8 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 62.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+7.2 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 78.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+21.8 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 63.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RatePointratepoint.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| CloudHealth Technologiescloudhealthtech.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| MineralTreemineraltree.com | 2011 | Yes | 72 | — |
| woodpellets.comwoodpellets.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Attend, Inc.attend.com | 2013 | Yes | 51 | — |
| American Biomassamericanbiomass.net | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| Connotateconnotate.com | 2010 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Pwnie Expresspwnieexpress.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |