Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
5AM Ventures vs Kairos
87th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 87.5% (14 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 64.0%–96.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 95th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+42.8 pp
87.5% on 16 deals vs 44.7%
Vs median VC book
+32.2 pp
87.5% on 16 deals vs 55.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+16.4 pp
87.5% on 16 deals vs 71.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+26.8 pp
87.5% on 16 deals vs 60.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
58
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 36.4% (4 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.3 pp
36.4% on 11 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulmatrixpulmatrix.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Rennoviarennovia.com | 2009 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Cleave Biosciencescleavebio.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Relypsarelypsa.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Pearl Therapeuticspearltherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| PhaseRxphaserx.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Anaphoreanaphoreinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Semprus BioSciencessemprusbio.com | 2008 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Epirus Biopharmaceuticalsepirusbiopharma.com | 2012 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Audentes Therapeuticsaudentestx.com | 2013 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Flexion Therapeuticsflexiontherapeutics.com | 2009 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Viveveviveve.com | 2012 | No | 49 | — |
| Marcadia Biotechmarcadiabiotech.com | 2006 | Yes | 38 | — |
| S*Biosbio.com | 2008 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Ambrxambrx.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| Synosia Therapeuticssynosia.com | 2007 | Yes | 13 | — |