Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Aberdare Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.6% (7 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–84.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+18.4 pp
63.6% on 11 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
+3.3 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 56.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.1 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 71.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.9 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 73.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 10 of 11 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+15.3 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellowello.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| Sequoia Pharmaceuticalssequoiapharmaceuticals.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Rock Healthrockhealth.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Nevronevro.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Jiffjiff.com | 2010 | Yes | 79 | — |
| NxTheranxthera.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| RxAnterxante.com | 2012 | No | 70 | — |
| Mpex Pharmaceuticalsmpexpharma.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| Paracor Medicalparacormedical.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| Clovis Oncologyclovisoncology.com | 2009 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Anacor Pharmaceuticalanacor.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |