Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ABS Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+0.1 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 46.1%
Vs median VC book
-9.9 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 56.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-25.6 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 71.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.0 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 63.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.4% (2 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 4.3%–42.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.3 pp
15.4% on 13 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CourseAdvisorcourseadvisor.com | 2006 | No | 87 | — |
| Zoom Media & Marketing - United Stateszoommedia.com | 2009 | No | 83 | — |
| Healthationhealthation.com | 2013 | No | 77 | — |
| INVISIONinvisioninc.com | 2008 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Ignite Media Solutionsignitemedia.com | 2007 | No | 54 | — |
| Quoforequofore.com | 2009 | Yes | 52 | — |
| eFashion Solutionsefashionsolutions.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| INTTRAinttra.com | 2010 | No | 51 | — |
| WhenU.comwhenu.com | 2005 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Tarpon Towerstarpontowers.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |
| TeachScapeteachscape.com | 2009 | No | 38 | — |
| SourceMedicalsourcemed.net | 2006 | No | 29 | — |
| MobileAwaremobileaware.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Alloy Digitalalloydigital.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |