Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ABS Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (4 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.5%–78.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 39.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 39.3%
Vs median VC book
+1.6 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 48.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.7 pp
50.0% on 8 deals vs 63.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-19.5 pp
40.0% on 5 deals vs 59.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.6 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Certonacertona.com | 2008 | No | 87 | — |
| Melintamelinta.com | 2009 | Yes | 69 | — |
| ObjectVideoobjectvideo.com | 2004 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Trema Group | 2005 | No | 51 | — |
| ScaleMPscalemp.com | 2008 | No | 49 | — |
| Paratekparatek.com | 2004 | Yes | 45 | — |
| ClickSquaredclicksquared.com | 2007 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Cogniocognio.com | 2003 | No | 19 | — |