Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Access Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (8 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 49.0%–94.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+36.5 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+24.1 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 55.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+9.3 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 70.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+7.9 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 69.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+19.8 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LogRhythmlogrhythm.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| NexGen Storagenexgenstorage.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Rebitrebit.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| TerraLUXterraluxillumination.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Alert Logicalertlogic.com | 2005 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Giveogiveo.com | 2010 | Yes | 71 | — |
| ETI Internationaleti.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Planitax | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| TensorCommtensorcomm.com | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| AlchemyAPIalchemyapi.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |