Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Accuitive Medical Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 85.7% (6 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.7%–97.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+44.3 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 41.4%
Vs median VC book
+34.5 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 51.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+17.9 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+27.2 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 58.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.4 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AqueSystif.net | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Nevronevro.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| NeoVistaneovistainc.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| MyoSciencemyoscience.com | 2008 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Cardiac Conceptscardiacconcepts.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| WaveTec Visionwavetecvision.com | 2007 | Yes | 46 | — |
| AcuFocusacufocus.com | 2007 | No | 40 | — |