Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ACT Venture Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+5.4 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 44.6%
Vs median VC book
-5.1 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 55.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.2 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 67.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.9 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 75.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
43
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+18.0 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 15.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelvarkeelvar.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| Digit Game Studiosdigitgaming.com | 2012 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Silicon & Software Systemss3group.com | 2005 | No | 58 | — |
| Firecommsfirecomms.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Frontier Siliconfrontier-silicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Cape Clear Software | 2006 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Novate Medicalnovatemedical.com | 2007 | No | 30 | — |
| Straatum Processwarestraatum.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| CR2cr2.com | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Corvilcorvil.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| FeedHenryfeedhenry.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |