Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Active Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (5 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.7%–76.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+4.2 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 45.8%
Vs median VC book
-7.9 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 57.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-22.5 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 72.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.9 pp
50.0% on 10 deals vs 71.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
37
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.4 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UserZoomuserzoom.com | 2008 | No | 86 | — |
| Barnebys - All Auctions in one placebarnebys.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Whisbiwhisbi.com | 2012 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Polymita Technologiespolymita.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| Restalorestalo.es | 2011 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Telemedicine Clinictelemedicineclinic.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Golden Gekkogoldengekko.com | 2007 | No | 18 | — |
| Sanaexpertsanaexpert.com | 2012 | No | 6 | — |
| Oferton Liveshoppingoooferton.com | 2010 | No | 4 | — |
| Packlinkpacklink.es | 2013 | Yes | — | — |