Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Acton Capital Partners vs Kairos
4th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 20.0% (4 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.1%–41.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 11th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-21.6 pp
20.0% on 20 deals vs 41.6%
Vs median VC book
-30.2 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-45.9 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 68.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-44.2 pp
17.6% on 17 deals vs 61.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 18 of 20 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (4 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 10.2%–49.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+12.6 pp
25.0% on 16 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasses Directglassesdirect.co.uk | 2009 | No | 91 | — |
| edelightedelight.de | 2007 | No | 87 | — |
| TeamPagesteampages.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| mokonomokono.com | 2008 | No | 84 | — |
| GameDuellgameduell.com | 2003 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Escapioen.escapio.com | 2008 | No | 76 | — |
| TripsByTipstripsbytips.de | 2007 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Cliogoclio.com | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| AlphaSightsalphasights.com | 2008 | No | 71 | — |
| mytheresa.commytheresa.com | 2010 | No | 58 | — |
| Fashion For Homefashionforhome.com | 2012 | No | 46 | — |
| Nexopianexopia.com | 2008 | No | 45 | — |
| Avensolumas.de | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| IndigoBoomindigoboom.com | 2007 | No | 35 | — |
| Momoxmomox.de | 2010 | No | 34 | — |
| Suite101suite101.com | 2007 | No | 23 | — |
| Bueroservice24bueroservice24.de | 2011 | No | 15 | — |
| Frontline GmbHfrontlineshop.com | 2010 | No | 8 | — |
| Zoopluszooplus.de | 2000 | No | — | — |
| United Ambient Media AGunited-ambient-media.de | 2000 | No | — | — |