Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Adams Capital Management vs Kairos
22nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 47.1% (8 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.2%–69.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 34th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.8 pp
47.1% on 17 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
-10.6 pp
43.8% on 16 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-25.6 pp
43.8% on 16 deals vs 69.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.9 pp
43.8% on 16 deals vs 65.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 16 of 17 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (3 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 7.0%–45.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.6 pp
20.0% on 15 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BookRenter.combookrenter.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| BioLeapbioleap.com | 2010 | No | 92 | — |
| Uplogixuplogix.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| ProspXprospx.com | 2008 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Rafterrafter.com | 2009 | Yes | 77 | — |
| SnapRetailsnapretail.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| LibreDigitallibredigital.com | 2006 | No | 70 | — |
| Mirage Networksmiragenetworks.com | 2005 | No | 64 | — |
| LiquidPistonliquidpiston.com | 2007 | No | 63 | — |
| Touchdown Technologiestdtech.com | 2005 | No | 59 | — |
| Factory Logicfactorylogic.com | 2005 | No | 50 | — |
| Dynamicsdynamicsinc.com | 2009 | Yes | 49 | — |
| CampaignerCRMcampaignercrm.com | 2010 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Luminescent Technologies | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Additechadditech.com | 2006 | No | 28 | — |
| VBrick Systems, Inc.vbrick.com | 2008 | No | 15 | — |
| AmberWaveamberwave.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |