Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Adams Street Partners vs Kairos
25th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (9 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.0%–71.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 39th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.2 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 43.8%
Vs median VC book
-3.3 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.3 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 68.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.3 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 64.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 35.3% (6 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 17.3%–58.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.6 pp
35.3% on 17 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RadiumOneradiumone.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| PneumRxpneumrx.com | 2007 | No | 94 | — |
| TriReme Medicaltrirememedical.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| MyHealthTeamsmyhealthteams.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Snagajobsnagajob.com | 2006 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Cyberacybera.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Neuraltus Pharmaceuticalsneuraltus.com | 2009 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Rempex Pharmaceuticalsrempexpharma.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Light Sciences Oncologylsoncology.com | 2005 | Yes | 65 | — |
| TicketsNowticketsnow.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| WhiteFencewhitefence.com | 2007 | No | 49 | — |
| Strataviastratavia.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Mpex Pharmaceuticalsmpexpharma.com | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| Enforaenfora.com | 2006 | No | 36 | — |
| MX Logicmxlogic.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| OncoMed Pharmaceuticalsoncomed.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Integral Development Corp.integral.com | 2009 | No | 29 | — |
| Paylocitypaylocity.com | 2008 | No | 24 | — |
| Q2ebankingq2ebanking.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Atlantisatlantiss.jp | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |