Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Advanced Technology Ventures vs Kairos
69th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.6% (21 of 33 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.6%–77.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 68th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+21.7 pp
63.6% on 33 deals vs 42.0%
Vs median VC book
+12.5 pp
63.6% on 33 deals vs 51.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.6 pp
63.6% on 33 deals vs 66.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.6 pp
63.3% on 30 deals vs 65.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
33
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.5% (5 of 27). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–36.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.5 pp
18.5% on 27 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
33 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compassoftcompassoft.com | 2003 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Silicor Materialssilicormaterials.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Browster | 2006 | No | 98 | — |
| Apprionapprion.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Gynesonicsgynesonics.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| GreatPoint Energygreatpointenergy.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Solar Junctionsj-solar.com | 2008 | Yes | 92 | — |
| EndoGastric Solutionsendogastricsolutions.com | 2003 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Modriamodria.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Evergageevergage.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Juniper Medical | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| Zeltiq Aestheticszeltiq.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Acceleron Pharmaacceleronpharma.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Coskatacoskata.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Rive Technologyrivetechnology.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| PowerVisionpowervisionlens.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Anagrananagran.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| EndPlayendplay.com | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| Sanovi Technologiessanovi.com | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| AltaRock Energyaltarockenergy.com | 2008 | No | 62 | — |
| Innovative Pulmonary Solutionsinnovativepulmonary.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Cenziccenzic.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| Engageengage.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| NeuroVistaneurovista.com | 2007 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Smooth-Stonesmooth-stone.com | 2010 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Handangohandango.com | 2006 | No | 44 | — |
| Wakonda Technologieswakondatech.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Integrated Media Measurement (IMMI)immi.com | 2008 | No | 33 | — |
| Thrasosthrasos.com | 2012 | Yes | 29 | — |
| [x+1]xplusone.com | 2008 | Yes | 29 | — |
| PolyRemedypolyremedy.com | 2008 | Yes | 21 | — |
| Five Prime Therapeuticsfiveprime.com | 2005 | No | 12 | — |
| Liquid Enginesliquidengines.com | 2004 | Yes | 7 | — |