Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Advancit Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 88.9% (8 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.5%–98.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 51.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+37.9 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 51.0%
Vs median VC book
+20.1 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 68.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+4.0 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 84.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+15.0 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 73.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
89
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nettle | 2011 | No | 92 | — |
| Directrdirectr.co | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| FitStarfitstar.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Local Responselocalresponse.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Percolatepercolate.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| The Business of Fashionbusinessoffashion.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Epoxyepoxy.tv | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Speakaboosspeakaboos.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Hoteles y Clubs de Vacaciones SA | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Skiftskift.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |