Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Advantage Capital Partners vs Kairos
19th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.0% (11 of 25 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–62.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 31st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+0.4 pp
44.0% on 25 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
-9.1 pp
44.0% on 25 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-24.0 pp
44.0% on 25 deals vs 68.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-27.4 pp
39.1% on 23 deals vs 66.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
25
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (4 of 20). 95% Wilson interval 8.1%–41.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.9 pp
20.0% on 20 deals vs 13.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
25 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singulexsingulex.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Elevate Digitalelevatedigital.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Bizzukabizzuka.com | 2007 | No | 76 | — |
| Skyline Innovationsskylineinnovations.com | 2012 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Synacorsynacor.com | 2004 | Yes | 69 | — |
| GridApp Systemsgridapp.com | 2004 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Invision.cominvision.com | 2006 | No | 65 | — |
| Natural Cleaners Coloradonaturalcleaners.us | 2008 | No | 65 | — |
| Carbolytic Materialscarbolytic.com | 2008 | No | 58 | — |
| Arc Solutionsarcsolutions.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| ArcMailarcmail.com | 2009 | No | 54 | — |
| U.S. Fiduciaryusfiduciary.com | 2007 | No | 54 | — |
| Portico Learning Solutionsporticolearning.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| QuaDPharmaqdpharma.com | 2012 | No | 53 | — |
| Quickofficequickoffice.com | 2005 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Allworxallworx.com | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |
| SOMS Technologiesmicrogreenfilter.com | 2008 | Yes | 38 | — |
| agencyQagencyq.com | 2011 | No | 38 | — |
| Owensboro Grainowensborograin.com | 2012 | No | 36 | — |
| Capturion Networkcapturion.com | 2009 | No | 27 | — |
| Waste Remedieswasteremedies.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Allen Brothersallenbrothers.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| Chapman Instrumentschapinst.com | 2008 | No | 21 | — |
| Pasteuria Biosciencepasteuriabio.com | 2005 | Yes | 20 | — |
| Computimecomputimeonline.com | 2009 | No | 6 | — |