Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Advent Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.9% (6 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 21.4%–67.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+1.6 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 41.2%
Vs median VC book
-4.9 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 51.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.8 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 66.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-27.3 pp
36.4% on 11 deals vs 63.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 13 of 14 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
13
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 9.1% (1 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 1.6%–37.7%.
Vs exit base rate
-4.1 pp
9.1% on 11 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audium Semiconductoraudiumsemi.co.uk | 2007 | No | 84 | — |
| Biocartisbiocartis.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Prexa Pharmaceuticalsprexainc.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Ubiquisysubiquisys.com | 2006 | Yes | 74 | — |
| OpenCloudopencloud.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Farfetchfarfetch.com | 2010 | Yes | 72 | — |
| The Fizzback Groupfizzback.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| Oxagenoxagen.co.uk | 2009 | No | 66 | — |
| NeoGuide Systemsneoguidesystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Riskclick | 2005 | No | 35 | — |
| CellNovocellnovo.com | 2011 | No | 35 | — |
| Pelikonpelikon.com | 2003 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Oreconorecon.com | 2008 | No | 16 | — |
| Celoxicaceloxica.com | 2001 | No | — | — |