Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
IDInvest Partners vs Kairos
47th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (12 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.7%–78.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 57th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.9 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
+6.2 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 53.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-9.4 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 69.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-9.7 pp
60.0% on 20 deals vs 69.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 7.1% (1 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 1.3%–31.5%.
Vs exit base rate
-6.9 pp
7.1% on 14 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talendtalend.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Lyatisslyatiss.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| Yoonoyoono.com | 2006 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Criteocriteo.com | 2006 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Viadeoviadeo.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Ezakusezakus.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Plumbeeplumbee.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Cursecurseinc.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| SightCallsightcall.com | 2011 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Kobojokobojo.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Sefas Innovationsefas.com | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Crocus Technologycrocus-technology.com | 2006 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Genticelgenticel.com | 2010 | No | 54 | — |
| Adociaadocia.com | 2008 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Auris Medicalaurismedical.com | 2008 | No | 38 | — |
| IntegraGenintegragen.com | 2005 | Yes | 22 | — |
| RECUPYLrecupyl.com | 2008 | No | 20 | — |
| Pretty Simpleprettysimplegames.com | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| Telismatelisma.com | 2006 | Yes | 12 | — |
| ZEturfzeturf.com | 2010 | No | 9 | — |
| Dymantdymant.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PathoQuestpathoquest.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |