Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Allegis Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 78.6% (11 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.4%–92.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+37.1 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 41.4%
Vs median VC book
+32.7 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 50.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+18.1 pp
83.3% on 12 deals vs 65.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+15.2 pp
80.0% on 10 deals vs 64.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 14 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (2 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 4.0%–39.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.7 pp
14.3% on 14 deals vs 13.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Symplifiedsymplified.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Apprionapprion.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| PureWave Networkspwnets.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| StepUpstepup.com | 2005 | No | 93 | — |
| Inertia Beverage Groupinertiabev.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| WaveMakerwavemaker.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| QSecureqsecure.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Rosum | 2003 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Coraidcoraid.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Axcientaxcient.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Attune Systemsstoragenewsletter.com | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Staccato Communicationsstaccatocommunications.com | 2004 | Yes | 31 | — |
| IronPort Systemsironport.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| LGC Wirelesslgcwireless.com | 2001 | No | — | — |