Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Alliance Venture vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 37.5% (3 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 13.7%–69.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-4.9 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
-14.9 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 52.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-30.3 pp
37.5% on 8 deals vs 67.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-54.5 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 71.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.1 pp
0.0% on 7 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xceivexceive.com | 2004 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Nethra Imagingnethra-imaging.com | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| Apieronapieron.com | 2003 | Yes | 67 | — |
| bMobilizedbmobilized.com | 2012 | No | 58 | — |
| Encapencapsecurity.com | 2010 | No | 50 | — |
| MemfoACTmemfoact.no | 2010 | No | 25 | — |
| poLightpolight.no | 2009 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Ping Communicationpingcom.net | 2010 | No | 13 | — |