Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Alloy Ventures vs Kairos
47th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 54.5% (18 of 33 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.0%–70.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 51st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+12.8 pp
54.5% on 33 deals vs 41.7%
Vs median VC book
+2.7 pp
54.5% on 33 deals vs 51.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.6 pp
54.5% on 33 deals vs 66.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.0 pp
50.0% on 28 deals vs 68.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
33
Mean model percentile
65
Flagged deals
53/5 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 18.2% (6 of 33). 95% Wilson interval 8.6%–34.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.2 pp
18.2% on 33 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
33 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polimetrix | 2004 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Scifinitiscifiniti.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Xangatixangati.com | 2007 | No | 99 | Yes |
| OPAL Therapeutics | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| Codon Devices | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Seriosity | 2006 | No | 97 | — |
| Retrevoretrevo.com | 2006 | Yes | 94 | — |
| KaloBios Pharmaceuticalskalobios.com | 2003 | Yes | 92 | — |
| IPextremeip-extreme.com | 2005 | No | 91 | — |
| Genomaticagenomatica.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| 3Leaf3leafsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 88 | — |
| netZentry | 2005 | No | 86 | — |
| Cambrios Technologiescambrios.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Infineta Systemsinfineta.com | 2010 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Starvine | 2006 | No | 71 | — |
| Crux Biomedicalcruxbiomedical.com | 2009 | No | 69 | — |
| Appteraapptera.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Moxsiemoxsie.com | 2008 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Attune Systemsstoragenewsletter.com | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Intelleflexintelleflex.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Pacific Biosciencespacificbiosciences.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| BARRX Medicalbarrx.com | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| Restoration Roboticsrestorationrobotics.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| CiraNovaciranova.com | 2003 | No | 46 | — |
| Adzillaadzilla.com | 2007 | No | 43 | — |
| Ravenflowravenflow.com | 2005 | Yes | 36 | — |
| Molecular Imprintsmolecularimprints.com | 2004 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Qwaqqwaq.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| Integrated Materialsintegratedmaterials.com | 2005 | No | 32 | — |
| Ensendaensenda.com | 2008 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Adianaadiana.com | 2005 | No | 25 | — |
| MontaVista Softwaremvista.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| NovaSysnovasyshealth.com | 2008 | No | 9 | — |