Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Alsop Louie Partners vs Kairos
41st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.0% (9 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.7%–80.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 58th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+15.9 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
+3.8 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 56.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-12.2 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 72.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.5 pp
60.0% on 15 deals vs 64.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 50.0% (6 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 25.4%–74.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+37.5 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 12.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FlickIMoutfittershaven.com | 2007 | No | 97 | — |
| Gowallagowalla.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Ness Computinglikeness.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ribbitribbit.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| TopSchooltopschoolinc.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Reduxredux.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Sportgenicsportgenic.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Ruckus Media Groupruckusreport.com | 2011 | No | 75 | — |
| Smith & Tinkersmithandtinker.com | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| Moonshootmoonshoot.net | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Elastic Intelligenceelasticintelligence.com | 2010 | No | 64 | — |
| Cleversafecleversafe.com | 2007 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Crowdcastcrowdcast.com | 2010 | No | 45 | — |
| Gokoplaydominion.com | 2012 | No | 43 | — |
| Jetlorejetlore.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |