Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Altos Ventures vs Kairos
58th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (12 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.7%–83.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 72nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+23.6 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
+14.1 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 52.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.8 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 67.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.0 pp
66.7% on 18 deals vs 64.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (2 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 3.1%–32.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-2.8 pp
11.1% on 18 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billeo Inc.billeo.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Outsparkoutspark.com | 2007 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| ROBLOXroblox.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Hooked Media Grouphookedmediagroup.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Provadeprovade.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| SeeControlseecontrol.com | 2005 | No | 92 | — |
| GuardianEdge Technologiesguardianedge.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Orbit Medialaunchorbit.com | 2010 | No | 89 | — |
| Trilibistrilibis.com | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| NetBase Solutionsnetbase.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Pandora.TVpandora.tv | 2006 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Demandbasedemandbase.com | 2008 | Yes | 86 | — |
| BrightEdgebrightedge.com | 2008 | Yes | 74 | — |
| WhiteHat Securitywhitehatsec.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| CrownPeakcrownpeak.com | 2006 | Yes | 49 | — |
| DemandTecdemandtec.com | 2007 | No | 47 | — |
| Accoloaccolo.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| Cogency Softwarecogencysoft.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |