Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Alven Capital vs Kairos
8th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (8 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.0%–53.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 16th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-12.4 pp
33.3% on 24 deals vs 45.8%
Vs median VC book
-24.1 pp
33.3% on 24 deals vs 57.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-39.7 pp
33.3% on 24 deals vs 73.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-37.5 pp
33.3% on 24 deals vs 70.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (5 of 15). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–58.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.1 pp
33.3% on 15 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digicompaniondigicompanion.com | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| MyFabfr.myfab.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| TextMastertextmaster.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Smallablesmallable.com | 2010 | No | 83 | — |
| Drivydrivy.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| MobPartnermobpartner.com | 2011 | No | 65 | — |
| Commerce Guyscommerceguys.com | 2012 | Yes | 64 | — |
| AntVoiceantvoice.com | 2011 | No | 61 | — |
| SoClozsocloz.com | 2012 | No | 60 | — |
| Algoliaalgolia.com | 2013 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Liligo.comliligo.com | 2008 | No | 52 | — |
| EntropySoftentropysoft.net | 2011 | No | 50 | — |
| Novapostpeople-doc.com | 2012 | Yes | 50 | — |
| NEMOPTICnemoptic.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Emos Futuresemos.net | 2005 | No | 37 | — |
| Pickup Servicespickup-services.com | 2006 | No | 31 | — |
| BI-SAM Technologiesbi-sam.com | 2006 | No | 30 | — |
| Metabolimetaboli.co.uk | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Quelle Energiequelleenergie.fr | 2010 | No | 27 | — |
| JolieBoxjoliebox.com | 2011 | No | 24 | — |
| MakeMeReachmakemereach.com | 2011 | No | 24 | — |
| Marco Vascomarcovasco.fr | 2011 | Yes | 23 | — |
| ERCOMercom.fr | 2009 | No | 14 | — |
| KelDockeldoc.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Simple ITsimple-it.fr | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Mentionmention.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |