Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Amadeus Capital Partners vs Kairos
75th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (16 of 22 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 51.8%–86.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 81st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.1 pp
72.7% on 22 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
+18.3 pp
71.4% on 21 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.7 pp
71.4% on 21 deals vs 67.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+3.6 pp
73.7% on 19 deals vs 70.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 21 of 22 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
21
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 15.8% (3 of 19). 95% Wilson interval 5.5%–37.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.5 pp
15.8% on 19 deals vs 14.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
22 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linkdexlinkdex.com | 2009 | Yes | 93 | — |
| oneDrumonedrum.com | 2010 | No | 83 | — |
| Ambient Industriesambientindustries.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Nujiranujira.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Liquavistaliquavista.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Agillic | 2007 | No | 72 | — |
| TrialReachtrialreach.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Intune Networksintunenetworks.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Artimiartimi.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Level 5 Networkslevel5networks.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Qinecqinec.com | 2012 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Cambridge Broadband Networkscbnl.com | 2006 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Enigmatecenigmatec.com | 2004 | Yes | 44 | — |
| PacketFrontpacketfront.com | 2004 | No | 42 | — |
| Riskclick | 2005 | No | 35 | — |
| GlySureglysure.com | 2012 | Yes | 35 | — |
| SEVEN Networksseven.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| CacheLogiccachelogic.com | 2006 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Velocixvelocix.com | 2006 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Veebeamveebeam.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| Aeponaaepona.com | 2005 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Bellcobellco.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Unrulyunrulymedia.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Plastic Logic Germanyplasticlogic.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |