Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
American River Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-27.4 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
-36.9 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 53.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-50.0 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-55.4 pp
16.7% on 6 deals vs 72.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+18.4 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 14.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incuity Softwareincuity.com | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| SynapSensesynapsense.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Agoura Technologiesagouratech.com | 2005 | No | 77 | — |
| OpenClovisopenclovis.com | 2005 | No | 52 | — |
| Lumetric Lightinglumetriclighting.com | 2008 | No | 47 | — |
| Integrated Materialsintegratedmaterials.com | 2005 | No | 32 | — |