Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Amicus Capital vs Kairos
92nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 88.2% (15 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 65.7%–96.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 96th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+44.4 pp
88.2% on 17 deals vs 43.9%
Vs median VC book
+32.5 pp
87.5% on 16 deals vs 55.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+17.4 pp
87.5% on 16 deals vs 70.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+16.3 pp
86.7% on 15 deals vs 70.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 16 of 17 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
16
Mean model percentile
83
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.0 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sendme, Incsendme.ng | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| VoxPop Network Corporationvoxpop.tv | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| YChartsycharts.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Attributorattributor.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| RidePalridepal.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Vizu Corporationbrandlift.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Signaturegetsignature.com | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| Getablegetable.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Odeoodeo.com | 2005 | No | 86 | — |
| ParkWhizparkwhiz.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Moseo (SeniorHomes.com)seniorhomes.com | 2010 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Corrigocorrigo.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Collaritycollarity.com | 2008 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Three Ringsthreerings.net | 2007 | Yes | 65 | — |
| BitPassbitpass.com | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Whittlwhittl.com | 2013 | Yes | 56 | — |
| IronPort Systemsironport.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |