Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Amidzad Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.9 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 43.1%
Vs median VC book
+18.4 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 51.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.1 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 67.9%
Vs Y Combinator
+12.2 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 57.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
90
Flagged deals
43/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (2 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 5.7%–51.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.0 pp
20.0% on 10 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lending Clublendingclub.com | 2007 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| isocketisocket.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| VentureBeatventurebeat.com | 2008 | No | 99 | Yes |
| SoundHound Inc.soundhound.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Powersetpowerset.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Clixtrclixtr.com | 2009 | No | 93 | — |
| OpTripoptrip.com | 2007 | No | 86 | — |
| Fotomotofotomoto.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Flipora | 2008 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Apriusaprius.com | 2006 | Yes | 67 | — |