Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Anthem Capital Management vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 33.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+46.6 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 33.4%
Vs median VC book
+39.9 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 40.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+23.3 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 56.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-10.0 pp
50.0% on 2 deals vs 60.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+5.2 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 14.8%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
5 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qovia | 2003 | Yes | 94 | Yes |
| Defywiredefywire.com | 2003 | Yes | 89 | — |
| GlycoMimeticsglycomimetics.com | 2003 | Yes | 82 | — |
| RedLassoredlasso.com | 2007 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Triumfanttriumfant.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |