Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Anthem Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (7 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 26.8%–73.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.0 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
-6.4 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-20.4 pp
50.0% on 14 deals vs 70.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-24.3 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 70.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
67
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 45.5% (5 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 21.3%–72.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+32.3 pp
45.5% on 11 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blurbblurb.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| TRUECartruecar.com | 2005 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| TweetPhototweetphoto.com | 2010 | No | 98 | — |
| Plixiplixi.com | 2010 | No | 96 | — |
| AdventureLink Travel Inc.adventurelink.com | 2009 | No | 95 | — |
| SpinMedia Groupspinmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Glossi, Incgo.slipp.it | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| FileTrekfiletrek.com | 2012 | No | 76 | — |
| BeachMintbeachmint.com | 2010 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Layerlayer.com | 2013 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Pulse Entertainmentpulse3d.com | 2007 | No | 31 | — |
| Axiom Microdevicesaxiom-micro.com | 2007 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Solarflare Communicationssolarflare.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| Troika Networks | 2003 | Yes | 6 | — |