Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
AOL Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (6 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.9%–92.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.6 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 47.4%
Vs median VC book
+14.1 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 60.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.0 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 77.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+2.1 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 72.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
88
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 66.7% (4 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 30.0%–90.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+55.7 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 11.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solve Media (An Adiant Company)solvemedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| TastemakerXtastemakerx.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Schematic Labsschematiclabs.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Metamarketsmetamarkets.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| MoviePassmoviepass.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| Impermiumimpermium.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| TrackMaventrackmaven.com | 2013 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Crunchedusecrunched.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |