Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Apax Partners vs Kairos
32nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.4% (11 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 32.4%–71.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 44th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.0 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
-0.6 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 52.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.7 pp
52.4% on 21 deals vs 66.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-20.6 pp
52.6% on 19 deals vs 73.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
21
Mean model percentile
43
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (3 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 5.0%–34.6%.
Vs exit base rate
-1.2 pp
14.3% on 21 deals vs 15.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mFoundrymfoundry.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Transera Communicationstranserainc.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| King.comking.com | 2005 | No | 86 | — |
| OneSpin Solutionsonespin-solutions.com | 2005 | No | 72 | — |
| VoodooVoxvoodoovox.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| DxO Labsdxo.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Handmarkhandmark.com | 2005 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Mobixell Networksmobixell.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Aerovanceaerovance.com | 2007 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Solid Information Technologysolidtech.com | 2004 | Yes | 41 | — |
| The NewsMarketthenewsmarket.com | 2004 | No | 40 | — |
| Frontier Siliconfrontier-silicon.com | 2005 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Dune Medical Devicesdunemedical.com | 2006 | No | 33 | — |
| Cadentcadentinc.com | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| Synaptic Digitalsynapticdigital.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Neurotechneurotechusa.com | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| Corvilcorvil.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| Innovalightinnovalight.com | 2007 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Crescendo Networkscrescendonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Wisairwisair.com | 2006 | Yes | 7 | — |
| Perfect Commerceperfect.com | 2005 | No | 2 | — |