Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Apex Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (8 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.1%–86.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.0 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 41.6%
Vs median VC book
+16.0 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 50.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.9 pp
66.7% on 12 deals vs 65.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+7.8 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 62.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 8.3% (1 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 1.5%–35.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-5.0 pp
8.3% on 12 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitWavebitwavesemiconductor.com | 2004 | No | 92 | — |
| Analyte Health | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Appoliciousappolicious.com | 2009 | Yes | 88 | — |
| worldhistoryprojectworldhistoryproject.org | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| Sittercitysittercity.com | 2009 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Austin Logistics Incorporatedalisolutions.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Metatomixmetatomix.com | 2003 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Cogency Softwarecogencysoft.com | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| Enkata Technologiesenkata.com | 2006 | Yes | 19 | — |
| agámi Systemsagami.com | 2007 | No | 19 | — |
| MobileAwaremobileaware.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Initiate Systemsinitiatesystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 6 | — |