Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Appian Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 78.6% (11 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.4%–92.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+35.7 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
+26.4 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 52.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+12.4 pp
78.6% on 14 deals vs 66.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.5 pp
76.9% on 13 deals vs 68.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (4 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 11.7%–54.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+14.0 pp
28.6% on 14 deals vs 14.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenLogicopenlogic.com | 2005 | Yes | 97 | Yes |
| OneRiotoneriot.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Collective Intellectcollectiveintellect.com | 2006 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Oxlo Systemsoxlo.com | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| SkyeTekskyetek.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Univauniva.com | 2005 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Univa UDunivaud.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| ETI Internationaleti.com | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| mPay Gatewaympaygateway.com | 2008 | Yes | 65 | — |
| AuctionPayauctionpay.com | 2006 | No | 61 | — |
| Seleroselero.com | 2008 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Commerce Synccommercesync.com | 2008 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Valen Analyticsvalen.com | 2007 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Roving Planet | 2004 | Yes | 32 | — |