Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Applied Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 90.0% (9 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.6%–98.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+49.0 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 41.0%
Vs median VC book
+40.1 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 49.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
+24.4 pp
90.0% on 10 deals vs 65.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+29.2 pp
88.9% on 9 deals vs 59.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
55
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+26.8 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enphase Energyenphaseenergy.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Sempriussemprius.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Solaicxsolaicx.com | 2006 | Yes | 69 | — |
| ClearEdge Powerclearedgepower.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Grandisgrandisinc.com | 2003 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Actacellactacell.com | 2008 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Devicescapedevicescape.com | 2005 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Wakonda Technologieswakondatech.com | 2008 | No | 34 | — |
| Infinite Power Solutionsinfinitepowersolutions.com | 2006 | Yes | 29 | — |
| SunEdisonsunedison.com | 2008 | Yes | 23 | — |