Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ARCH Venture Partners vs Kairos
100th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 87.5% (28 of 32 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 71.9%–95.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 96th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+44.1 pp
87.5% on 32 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
+31.6 pp
86.7% on 30 deals vs 55.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+16.4 pp
86.7% on 30 deals vs 70.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+22.8 pp
88.5% on 26 deals vs 65.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 30 of 32 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
30
Mean model percentile
62
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.4% (6 of 31). 95% Wilson interval 9.2%–36.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.0 pp
19.4% on 31 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
32 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allozyneallozyne.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Shocking Technologiesshockingtechnologies.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Groove Biopharmagroovebiopharma.com | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Sempriussemprius.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Ensemble Discoveryensemblediscovery.com | 2004 | No | 92 | — |
| BIND Therapeutics, Inc.bindtherapeutics.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ciespaceciespace.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Quanterixquanterix.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Agios Pharmaceuticalsagiospharmaceuticals.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Cambrios Technologiescambrios.com | 2004 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Kilimanjaro Energygrestech.com | 2010 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Univauniva.com | 2005 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Univa UDunivaud.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Syros Pharmaceuticalssyros.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| PhaseRxphaserx.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Theraclone Sciencestheraclone-sciences.com | 2010 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Fate Therapeuticsfatetherapeutics.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| KOTURAkotura.com | 2004 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Avesoavesodisplays.com | 2006 | Yes | 58 | — |
| VLST Corporationvlstcorp.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Limerick BioPharmalimerickbio.com | 2008 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Juno Therapeuticsjunotherapeutics.com | 2013 | Yes | 49 | — |
| AgBiomeagbiome.com | 2013 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Sapphire Energysapphireenergy.com | 2008 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Qwell Pharmaceuticals | 2009 | No | 29 | — |
| Crystal IScisuvc.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Nanosysnanosysinc.com | 2003 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Elixir Pharmaceuticalselixirpharm.com | 2006 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Innovalightinnovalight.com | 2007 | Yes | 16 | — |
| Impinjimpinj.com | 2005 | Yes | 13 | — |
| AmberWaveamberwave.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| NextCode Healthnextcode.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Ahura Scientificahurascientific.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |