Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ArrowPath Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 54.5% (6 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 28.0%–78.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.5%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.1 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 43.5%
Vs median VC book
+1.1 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 53.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-11.5 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 66.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-14.4 pp
60.0% on 10 deals vs 74.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 36.4% (4 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.9 pp
36.4% on 11 deals vs 15.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlueRoadsblueroads.com | 2004 | No | 95 | Yes |
| Appscioappscio.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| MetaLINCSmetalincs.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| Vyattavyatta.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Anagrananagran.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Gamma Enterprise Technologies | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| TriCiphertricipher.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Xceediumxceedium.com | 2006 | No | 55 | — |
| Innotasinnotas.com | 2006 | Yes | 55 | — |
| BinOpticsbinoptics.com | 2005 | Yes | 39 | — |
| BeVocalbevocal.com | 2005 | No | 15 | — |