Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Artiman Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 35.7% (5 of 14 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 16.3%–61.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 14.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-6.6 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 42.3%
Vs median VC book
-18.1 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 53.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-33.4 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 69.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-33.6 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 67.0%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
14
Mean model percentile
71
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 16.7% (2 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 4.7%–44.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+2.6 pp
16.7% on 12 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
14 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyynodyyno.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Zyme Solutionszymesolutions.com | 2005 | No | 89 | — |
| Virident Systemsvirident.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Nethra Imagingnethra-imaging.com | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| XTRMxtrm.com | 2007 | No | 81 | — |
| Airwide Solutionsairwidesolutions.com | 2004 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Adama Materialsadamamaterials.com | 2010 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Pricelockpricelock.com | 2011 | No | 77 | — |
| Sierra Design Automation | 2003 | No | 73 | — |
| Myndnetmyndnet.com | 2007 | No | 61 | — |
| NetDevicestvizl.blogspot.com | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| OpSourceopsource.net | 2006 | Yes | 48 | — |
| VuCast Mediavucast.com | 2010 | No | 48 | — |
| Tonbo Imagingtonboimaging.com | 2013 | No | 40 | — |
| Guavas | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |