Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Arts Alliance Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 22.2% (2 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 6.3%–54.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-20.0 pp
22.2% on 9 deals vs 42.2%
Vs median VC book
-22.7 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 51.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-38.5 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 67.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-32.6 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 61.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 7 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-13.7 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 13.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylifedaylife.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| YCD Multimediaycdmultimedia.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| RollUp Mediarollupmedia.com | 2012 | No | 68 | — |
| Povopovo.com | 2007 | No | 67 | — |
| InLive Interactiveinlive.tv | 2006 | No | 33 | — |
| Cinelancinelan.com | 2008 | No | 20 | — |
| Monte Cristomontecristogames.com | 2008 | No | 12 | — |
| Atom Entertainmentatomentertainment.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| AtomShockwave | 2001 | No | — | — |