Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Ascent Venture Partners vs Kairos
33rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 52.9% (9 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 31.0%–73.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 48th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+10.5 pp
52.9% on 17 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
-0.3 pp
52.9% on 17 deals vs 53.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.9 pp
52.9% on 17 deals vs 66.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-15.0 pp
53.3% on 15 deals vs 68.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (2 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 4.0%–39.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+0.3 pp
14.3% on 14 deals vs 13.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HubCasthubcast.com | 2007 | No | 97 | — |
| Whaleback Systemswhalebackms.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Terascalaterascala.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Fidelis Security Systemsfidelissecurity.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| ScaleBasescalebase.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| StartAppstartapp.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| Guardiumguardium.com | 2005 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Network Intelligence | 2009 | No | 72 | — |
| StrikeIronstrikeiron.com | 2007 | Yes | 71 | — |
| V.i. Laboratoriesvilabs.com | 2007 | No | 71 | — |
| Verivo Softwareverivo.com | 2005 | Yes | 64 | — |
| WebLayersweblayers.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Pyxis Mobilepyxismobile.com | 2005 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Bluesocketbluesocket.com | 2003 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Auction Holdingsauctionzip.com | 2009 | No | 42 | — |
| ZoomInfozoominfo.com | 2004 | No | 40 | — |
| Everyday Solutionseverydaywireless.com | 2010 | No | 25 | — |