Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
ATA Ventures vs Kairos
63rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 65.2% (15 of 23 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 44.9%–81.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 70th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.7 pp
65.2% on 23 deals vs 42.5%
Vs median VC book
+13.2 pp
65.2% on 23 deals vs 52.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.9 pp
65.2% on 23 deals vs 67.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-4.4 pp
61.9% on 21 deals vs 66.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
23
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
32/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 26.1% (6 of 23). 95% Wilson interval 12.5%–46.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+11.8 pp
26.1% on 23 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
23 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RipCoderipcode.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Agisticsagistics.com | 2005 | No | 99 | Yes |
| MediaPhymediaphy.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Liquid Computingliquidcomputing.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Shocking Technologiesshockingtechnologies.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| PureWave Networkspwnets.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| Altierrealtierre.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Orbit Medialaunchorbit.com | 2010 | No | 89 | — |
| FastScaleTechnologyfastscale.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Trilibistrilibis.com | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| Milyonimilyoni.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| AdventEnna | 2007 | No | 82 | — |
| Red Condorredcondor.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| YottaMarkyottamark.com | 2008 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Rivulet Communicationsrivulet.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| PixSensepixsense.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Cswitchcswitch.com | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| TeleCIS Wirelesstelecis.com | 2006 | No | 66 | — |
| NanoGramnanogram.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| ReVerarevera.com | 2005 | No | 30 | — |
| Synforasynfora.com | 2004 | Yes | 21 | — |
| EdgeWave Inc.edgewave.com | 2010 | Yes | 19 | — |
| NeoPhotonicsneophotonics.com | 2004 | Yes | 5 | — |