Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Atlas Venture vs Kairos
92nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.3% (52 of 74 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 59.1%–79.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.5%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 75th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.7 pp
70.3% on 74 deals vs 44.5%
Vs median VC book
+14.1 pp
69.4% on 72 deals vs 55.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.8 pp
69.4% on 72 deals vs 70.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+1.0 pp
70.8% on 65 deals vs 69.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 72 of 74 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
70
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.3% (11 of 57). 95% Wilson interval 11.1%–31.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+4.7 pp
19.3% on 57 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
74 labeled follow-on deals, 6 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaskeas.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| SimpleTuitionsimpletuition.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| EnglishCentralenglishcentral.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Seatwaveseatwave.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| DataXudataxu.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| InsightSquaredinsightsquared.com | 2011 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Pixtronixpixtronix.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| CloudSwitchcloudswitch.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Bit9bit9.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Zinwavezinwave.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Adnexusadnexustx.com | 2003 | No | 91 | — |
| LuckyLabsluckylabs.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Sqrrlsqrrl.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| PowerInboxpowerinbox.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Veracodeveracode.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Collaxcollax.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| Spindlespindle.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| VideoIQvideoiq.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Songbirdgetsongbird.net | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| brylleshozu.com | 2005 | Yes | 87 | — |
| DraftKingsdraftkings.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Fancredfancred.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| CLK Design Automationclkda.com | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| On-Q-ityon-q-ity.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| VirtualLogixvirtuallogix.com | 2004 | No | 83 | — |
| Stromedixstromedix.com | 2007 | Yes | 81 | — |
| SAFE ID Solutionssafe-id.de | 2005 | No | 81 | — |
| Abineabine.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Dailymotiondailymotion.com | 2006 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Chillchill.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Currency Cloudcurrencycloud.com | 2012 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Secret Escapessecretescapes.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| OwnerIQowneriq.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| DisplayLinkdisplaylink.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Ubiquisysubiquisys.com | 2006 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Xytisxytis.com | 2006 | No | 74 | — |
| Bicycle Therapeuticsbicycletherapeutics.com | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Patreonpatreon.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| MOO.COMmoo.com | 2006 | No | 72 | — |
| F-star Biotechnology Limitedf-star.com | 2007 | Yes | 72 | — |
| clypdclypd.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Bluespecbluespec.com | 2006 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Advanced Electron Beamsaeb.com | 2007 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Vurbvurb.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Zafgenzafgen.com | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Miragen Therapeuticsmiragentherapeutics.com | 2008 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Apogee Photonics | 2005 | No | 62 | — |
| Realeyes 3Drealeyes3d.com | 2005 | No | 61 | — |
| FX Alignedfxaligned.com | 2012 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Mascomamascoma.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Unbounceunbounce.com | 2011 | No | 50 | — |
| Iceraicerasemi.com | 2003 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Rodin Therapeuticsrodintherapeutics.com | 2013 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Extend Mediaextend.com | 2006 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Lagoalagoa.com | 2013 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Tribotek | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Kalidokalido.com | 2003 | Yes | 45 | — |
| COLOURloverscolourlovers.com | 2011 | No | 44 | — |
| BlueShift Technologiesblueshifttech.com | 2006 | Yes | 41 | — |
| 3V Transaction Services3vcorporate.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Lilliputian Systemsnectarpower.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Starbakstarbak.com | 2003 | Yes | 35 | — |
| datangodatango.com | 2006 | No | 35 | — |
| Egaletegalet.com | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| Klee Data Systemkds.com | 2005 | No | 29 | — |
| Active Endpointsactiveendpoints.com | 2004 | Yes | 25 | — |
| Neurotechneurotechusa.com | 2006 | No | 22 | — |
| Marathon Technologiesmarathontechnologies.com | 2004 | No | 19 | — |
| Liquid Machinesliquidmachines.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| NTRglobalntrglobal.com | 2008 | No | 10 | — |
| Xeleratedxelerated.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| ZappRxzapprx.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Aureon Laboratoriesaureon.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Bluetrain.iobluetrain.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Harbour Antibodiesharbourantibodies.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| HStreaminghstreaming.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Nutoniannutonian.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Rocketmilesrocketmiles.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Sqwigglesqwiggle.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Colingocolingo.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |