Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
August Capital vs Kairos
57th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 60.6% (20 of 33 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.7%–75.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 59th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.4 pp
60.6% on 33 deals vs 44.2%
Vs median VC book
+6.2 pp
60.6% on 33 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-8.6 pp
60.6% on 33 deals vs 69.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-13.1 pp
55.2% on 29 deals vs 68.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
33
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
43/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 44.8% (13 of 29). 95% Wilson interval 28.4%–62.5%.
Vs exit base rate
+31.4 pp
44.8% on 29 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
33 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NeoPath Networkscisco.com | 2004 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Luminateluminatemed.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Gravitygravity.com | 2009 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Urban Airshipurbanairship.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| DNN Corpdnnsoftware.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Virsto Softwarevirsto.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| threadsythreadsy.com | 2008 | Yes | 97 | — |
| DITTO.comditto.com | 2011 | No | 95 | — |
| Magnum Semiconductormagnumsemi.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Ohaiohai.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| Splunksplunk.com | 2004 | Yes | 93 | — |
| PacketTrap Networkspackettrap.com | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Xirrusxirrus.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Samba TVsamba.tv | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| INRIXinrix.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Avantavant.com | 2013 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Mimosa Systemsmimosasystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Nomis Solutionsnomissolutions.com | 2005 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Alta Devicesaltadevices.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| Trumba Corporationtrumba.com | 2005 | No | 63 | — |
| Scintera Networksscintera.com | 2004 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Summit Microelectronicssummitmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Encentuateencentuate.com | 2005 | No | 51 | — |
| Memolanememolane.com | 2010 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Reconnexreconnex.net | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Devicescapedevicescape.com | 2005 | Yes | 44 | — |
| Red Swooshredswoosh.net | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| Unity Semiconductorunitysemi.com | 2009 | No | 34 | — |
| OPENLANEopenlane.com | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| Luxteraluxtera.com | 2006 | Yes | 24 | — |
| Bubblibubb.li | 2011 | No | 13 | — |
| Performance Marketing Brands, Inc.performancemarketingbrands.com | 2012 | No | 12 | — |
| Ubicomubicom.com | 2004 | Yes | 12 | — |