Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Auriga Partners vs Kairos
17th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 42.1% (8 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–63.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 27th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-2.6 pp
42.1% on 19 deals vs 44.7%
Vs median VC book
-10.6 pp
44.4% on 18 deals vs 55.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-25.9 pp
44.4% on 18 deals vs 70.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-20.1 pp
43.8% on 16 deals vs 63.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 18 of 19 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 12.5% (2 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 3.5%–36.0%.
Vs exit base rate
-0.1 pp
12.5% on 16 deals vs 12.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BonitaSoftbonitasoft.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Genocea Biosciencesgenocea.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Nexthinknexthink.com | 2007 | No | 94 | — |
| SuperSonic Imaginesupersonicimagine.fr | 2006 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Convertigoconvertigo.com | 2009 | No | 81 | — |
| SpinX Technologiesspinx-technologies.com | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| Innovative Siliconinnovativesilicon.com | 2004 | Yes | 71 | — |
| TxCelltxcell.com | 2004 | No | 55 | — |
| Codenvycodenvy.com | 2013 | No | 54 | — |
| Open-Plugopenplug.com | 2006 | No | 52 | — |
| Population Genetics Technologiespopulationgeneticstechnologies.com | 2008 | Yes | 45 | — |
| IDbyME | 2010 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Nautilus Biotech | 2005 | Yes | 43 | — |
| NGIngicreative.com | 2007 | No | 40 | — |
| NEMOPTICnemoptic.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| CellNovocellnovo.com | 2011 | No | 35 | — |
| Cytoocytoo.com | 2009 | Yes | 31 | — |
| Evolvaevolva.com | 2009 | No | 16 | — |
| Neolaneneolane.com | 2002 | No | — | — |