Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Austin Ventures vs Kairos
82nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 65.8% (48 of 73 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 54.3%–75.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 69th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.0 pp
65.8% on 73 deals vs 43.8%
Vs median VC book
+10.8 pp
65.2% on 69 deals vs 54.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.6 pp
65.2% on 69 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.5 pp
66.7% on 63 deals vs 70.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 69 of 73 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
68
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 24.2% (15 of 62). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–36.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.1 pp
24.2% on 62 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
73 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spiceworksspiceworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Bazaarvoicebazaarvoice.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| FameCastfamecast.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Handshakezhandshakez.com | 2013 | Yes | 98 | — |
| divorce360divorce360.com | 2007 | No | 97 | — |
| Workstreamerworkstreamer.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| SailPoint Technologiessailpoint.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| FiveRunsfiveruns.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Slackerslacker.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Innographyinnography.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| MojoPagesmojopages.com | 2009 | No | 93 | — |
| ColdWattcoldwatt.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Augmentixaugmentix.com | 2005 | No | 91 | — |
| Adometry By Googleadometry.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Mass Relevancespredfast.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| OutboundEngineoutboundengine.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Black Sand Technologiesblacksand.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| ESO Solutionsesosolutions.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| The American Academytheamericanacademy.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Thoofthoof.com | 2007 | No | 83 | — |
| Spredfastspredfast.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Pluckpluck.com | 2004 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Nascentricnascentric.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| MOGLmogl.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| On Networksonnetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Virtual Bridgesvbridges.com | 2010 | No | 78 | — |
| Sipera Systemssipera.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| HomeAwayhomeaway.com | 2005 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Pintail Technologiespintailtechnologies.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| PWRFpulsewaverf.com | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Umbelumbel.com | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Dachis Groupdachisgroup.com | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Mavenir Systemsmavenir.com | 2006 | Yes | 74 | — |
| BreakingPoint Systemsbreakingpoint.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Alereonalereon.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| NewComLinknewcomlink.com | 2011 | Yes | 70 | — |
| LabNowlabnow.com | 2004 | No | 69 | — |
| LifeSize, a Division of Logitechlifesize.com | 2005 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Solar Power Technologiesspowertech.com | 2011 | No | 68 | — |
| NetStreams | 2004 | No | 67 | — |
| Vovicivovici.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Silverback Enterprise Group, Inc.silverbackeg.com | 2010 | No | 65 | — |
| Paragon Wirelessparawireless.com | 2005 | No | 64 | — |
| Pyxis Technologypyxistech.com | 2006 | Yes | 60 | — |
| Asset Internationalassetinternational.com | 2009 | No | 52 | — |
| Powereddachisgroup.com | 2006 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Troux Technologiestroux.com | 2005 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Navini Networks | 2005 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Process Data Controlpdccorp.com | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| MindJoltmindjolt.com | 2010 | No | 46 | — |
| Calpont Corporationcalpont.com | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| BBS Technologiesbbstech.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Flash Valetweb.flashvalet.com | 2012 | No | 39 | — |
| Paymetricpaymetric.com | 2005 | No | 35 | — |
| Drakerdrakerenergy.com | 2008 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Britestream Networks | 2005 | No | 32 | — |
| Noesisnoesis.com | 2011 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Zeno Corporationmyzeno.com | 2008 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Surgientsurgient.com | 2006 | No | 25 | — |
| Emerus Hospital Partnersemerus.com | 2011 | No | 24 | — |
| Lombardi Softwarelombardi.com | 2003 | No | 22 | — |
| Azul Systemsazulsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Lincoln Renewable Energylincolnrenewableenergy.com | 2011 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Validity Sensorsvalidityinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 13 | — |
| ePartnersepartnersolutions.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| ATCOR Holdings | 2008 | No | 6 | — |
| RLX Technologies | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Worksoftworksoft.com | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Convioconvio.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| Zilliantzilliant.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| CREDANT Technologiescredant.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Edgecase (formerly Compare Metrics)edgecase.io | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| NetEffectneteffect.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |