Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Avalon Ventures vs Kairos
75th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (15 of 20 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 53.1%–88.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 82nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.9 pp
75.0% on 20 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
+18.2 pp
75.0% on 20 deals vs 56.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.5 pp
75.0% on 20 deals vs 72.5%
Vs Y Combinator
+10.3 pp
78.9% on 19 deals vs 68.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
77
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (4 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 13.8%–60.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.1 pp
33.3% on 12 deals vs 13.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
20 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aratana Therapeuticsaratanatherapeutics.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Pictela, now ONE by AOL: Creativeonebyaol.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Kalon Semiconductor | 2006 | No | 97 | — |
| Intercastingintercastingcorp.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Chartiochartio.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| AnaptysBioanaptysbio.com | 2006 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Otonomyotonomy.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Nanigansnanigans.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Syndax Pharmaceuticalssyndax.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Chumbychumby.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Tapadtapad.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Kalturacorp.kaltura.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Pinguppingup.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| MOGLmogl.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| BioVexbiovex.com | 2003 | No | 68 | — |
| Simulmediasimulmedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Avelas Biosciencesavelasbio.com | 2012 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Selectable Mediaselectablemedia.com | 2008 | No | 59 | — |
| Conjurconjur.net | 2013 | Yes | 32 | — |
| LoopItloopit.com | 2013 | No | 10 | — |
| Sitari Pharmaceuticals | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |