Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Axon Capital vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 0.0% (0 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–35.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

-43.3 pp

0.0% on 7 deals vs 43.3%

Vs median VC book

-54.3 pp

0.0% on 7 deals vs 54.3%

Vs top-quartile VC

-69.8 pp

0.0% on 7 deals vs 69.8%

Vs Y Combinator

-67.9 pp

0.0% on 7 deals vs 67.9%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
AquaMobileaquamobile.es	2007	No	66	—
DocOnYoudoconyou.com	2011	No	60	—
wuaki.tves.wuaki.tv	2011	No	55	—
NicePeopleAtWorknicepeopleatwork.com	2012	No	50	—
Enigma Software Productionsenigmasp.com	2007	No	19	—
Captronic Systemscaptronicsystems.com	2012	No	16	—
Virgin Playvirginplay.es	2008	No	5	—