Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Azione Capital Pte Ltd vs Kairos
2nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 6.7% (1 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 1.2%–29.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 3rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-36.6 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 43.3%
Vs median VC book
-48.5 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 55.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-64.9 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 71.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-60.7 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 67.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
43
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–25.9%.
Vs exit base rate
-12.6 pp
0.0% on 11 deals vs 12.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asker | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| Coupmon | 2011 | No | 56 | — |
| DesignHub | 2011 | No | 55 | — |
| Clan Fight | 2011 | No | 52 | — |
| DealPing | 2010 | No | 50 | — |
| Go World! | 2010 | No | 49 | — |
| SpendCrowdspendcrowd.com | 2010 | No | 43 | — |
| Dynamic Social Network Analysis | 2010 | No | 43 | — |
| HundredAppleshundredapples.com | 2011 | No | 43 | — |
| e994e994.com | 2008 | Yes | 41 | — |
| FusionAds | 2007 | No | 38 | — |
| Who Works Around Youwhoworksaroundyou.com | 2006 | No | 36 | — |
| Hibernaterhibernater.com | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| Talenztalenz.com | 2007 | No | 30 | — |
| TheMobileGamer (TMG)tmgamer.co | 2007 | No | 27 | — |