Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Azure Capital Partners vs Kairos
39th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 55.6% (10 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 33.7%–75.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 52nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+13.4 pp
55.6% on 18 deals vs 42.2%
Vs median VC book
+6.1 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 52.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-8.9 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 67.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.4 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 65.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 17 of 18 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.5% (6 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 18.5%–61.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+23.5 pp
37.5% on 16 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rooftop Mediarooftopmedia.net | 2007 | No | 98 | — |
| Limbolimbo.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Medsphere Systemsmedsphere.com | 2005 | No | 92 | — |
| TravelMusetravelmuse.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Jacent Technologiesjacent.com | 2005 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Open Road Integrated Mediaopenroadmedia.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Vapps | 2007 | No | 86 | — |
| Coraidcoraid.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| TripOvationtripovation.com | 2007 | No | 78 | — |
| Chairishchairish.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| BroadLightbroadlight.com | 2004 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Zend Technologieszend.com | 2004 | Yes | 64 | — |
| ROME Corporationromecorp.com | 2006 | No | 63 | — |
| Bill Me Laterbillmelater.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| World Wide Packets | 2004 | Yes | 54 | — |
| NeoNova Network Servicesneonova.net | 2009 | No | 36 | — |
| Calixcalix.com | 2003 | No | 30 | — |
| Sylantrosylantro.com | 2000 | No | — | — |
| SwiftTestswifttest.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |