Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Bain Capital Ventures vs Kairos
97th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 84.4% (27 of 32 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 68.2%–93.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 93rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+39.2 pp
84.4% on 32 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
+26.7 pp
84.4% on 32 deals vs 57.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+11.7 pp
84.4% on 32 deals vs 72.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+15.8 pp
84.4% on 32 deals vs 68.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
32
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 34.8% (8 of 23). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–55.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.9 pp
34.8% on 23 deals vs 12.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
32 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SynapDxsynapdx.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Rent the Runwayrenttherunway.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| aPriori Technologiesapriori.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| BloomReachbloomreach.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Enclarityenclarity.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Color Labs Inc.color.com | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Oyster.comoyster.com | 2008 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Stackdriverstackdriver.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Mementomementosecurity.com | 2005 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Stampedstamped.com | 2011 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Quanterixquanterix.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| RaveMobileSafety.comravemobilesafety.com | 2005 | Yes | 86 | — |
| ScaleBasescalebase.com | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| AppNetaappneta.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Humedicahumedica.com | 2009 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Liazonliazon.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| HookLogichooklogic.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Centicecentice.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Persadopersado.com | 2013 | Yes | 76 | — |
| SigFigsigfig.com | 2013 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Total Attorneystotalattorneys.com | 2012 | No | 69 | — |
| VMTurbovmturbo.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Dynatracedynatrace.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| ZeroTurnaroundzeroturnaround.com | 2011 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Rapid7rapid7.com | 2008 | Yes | 57 | — |
| GameLogicgamelogic.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Lalalala.com | 2005 | Yes | 53 | — |
| AppAssure Softwareappassure.com | 2008 | No | 37 | — |
| Novusnovus.com | 2013 | No | 32 | — |
| SolarWindssolarwinds.com | 2005 | Yes | 23 | — |
| SurveyMonkeysurveymonkey.com | 2009 | Yes | 16 | — |
| 1-800-DENTIST1800dentist.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| Compass Quality Insight Inc.compassquality.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ObserveITobserveit.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |